Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections (SLTFP)
The SLTFP, including the corresponding Note and RSI, are intended to help readers of the government’s financial statements assess the federal government’s financial condition and how it has changed during the year and may change in the future. The statements and corresponding analysis are specifically designed to help readers assess whether future budgetary resources will be sufficient to sustain public services and to meet obligations as they come due, assuming that current policy for federal government services and taxation continues without change.
The SLTFP display the PV of 75-year projections by major category of receipts and non-interest spending. The projections show the extent to which future receipts of the government exceed or fall short of the government’s non-interest spending and are presented both in terms of PV dollars and in terms of PV dollars as a percent of PV GDP. The projections reflect policies currently in place and are neither forecasts nor predictions. The projections are consistent with the projections for Social Security and Medicare presented in the SOSI and are based on the same economic and demographic assumptions that underlie the SOSI. The SLTFP display the fiscal gap, which is a summary measure of the change in receipts or non- interest spending that is necessary to reach a target ratio of debt held by the public to GDP at the end of the projection period. Note 26—Long-Term Fiscal Projections, explains the methods used to prepare the projections. Unaudited RSI further assesses the sustainability of current fiscal policy and provides results that are based on alternative assumptions to those used in the SLTFP.
As discussed further in Note 26, a sustainable policy is one where the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or declining over the long term. Because GDP measures the size of the nation’s economy in terms of the total value of all final goods and services that are produced in a year, the debt-to-GDP ratio is a useful indicator of the economy’s capacity to support federal government’s services.
United States Government
Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections (Note 26)
Present Value of 75-Year Projections as of September 30, 2021 and 20201
| In trillions of dollars | Percent of GDP 2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | Change | 2021 | 2020 | Change | |
| Receipts: | ||||||
| Social Security payroll taxes | 72.9 | 68.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| Medicare payroll taxes | 24.5 | 22.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| Individual income taxes | 190.9 | 164.4 | 26.5 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 1.1 |
| Corporation income taxes | 23.0 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Other receipts | 21.6 | 18.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Total receipts | 332.8 | 295.4 | 37.3 | 19.3 | 18.0 | 1.3 |
| Non-interest spending: | ||||||
| Social Security | 102.9 | 95.2 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 0.2 |
| Medicare Part A 3 | 34.9 | 32.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| Medicare Parts B & D 4 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Medicaid | 51.7 | 37.4 | 14.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Other mandatory | 70.6 | 58.5 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Defense discretionary | 54.4 | 53.6 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | (0.1) |
| Non-defense discretionary | 67.3 | 52.4 | 14.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Total non-interest spending | 430.4 | 374.9 | 55.4 | 25.0 | 22.8 | 2.2 |
| Receipts less non-interest spending | (97.6) | (79.5) | (18.1) | (5.7) | (4.8) | (0.8) |
| Fiscal Gap 5 | (6.2) | (5.4) | (0.8) | |||
1 75-year present value projections for 2021 are as of 9/30/2021 for FYs 2022-2096; projections for 2020 are as of 9/30/2020 for FYs 2021- 2095.
2 The 75-year present value of nominal GDP, which drives the calculations above is $1,724.4 trillion starting in FY 2022, and was $1,645.1 trillion starting in FY 2021.
3 Represents portions of Medicare supported by payroll taxes.
4 Represents portions of Medicare supported by general revenues. Consistent with the President's Budget, outlays for Parts B & D are presented net of premiums.
5 To prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising over the next 75 years, a combination of non-interest spending reductions and receipt increases that amounts to 6.2 percent of GDP on average is needed (5.4 percent of GDP on average in 2020). See Note 26 — Long-Term Fiscal Projections.
Totals may not equal the sum of components due to rounding.
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.