Statements of Social Insurance and Changes in Social Insurance Amounts
SOSI provides estimates of the status of the most significant social insurance programs: Social Security, Medicare, Railroad Retirement, and Black Lung.2 They are administered by SSA, HHS, RRB, and DOL, respectively. The SSA and HHS projections are based on the intermediate economic and demographic assumptions representing the Trustees’ reasonable estimates of likely future economic and demographic conditions, as set forth in the applicable Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports as well as in the financial statements of HHS and SSA. RRB’s projections are based on assumptions from the 29th Actuarial Valuation of the Assets and Liabilities Under the Railroad Retirement Acts as of December 31, 2022 with Technical Supplement, which also serves as the 2024 Annual Report of the Railroad Retirement System required by Section 502 of the Railroad Retirement Solvency Act of 1983 (P.L. 98-76), as well as in RRB’s financial statements and DOL’s projections are based on assumptions disclosed in its financial statements.
The SCSIA shows two reconciliations: 1) change from the period beginning on January 1, 2024 to the period beginning on January 1, 2025; and 2) change from the period beginning on January 1, 2023 to the period beginning on January 1, 2024. It reconciles the changes (between the current valuation and the prior valuation) in the PV of estimated future revenue less estimated future expenditures for current and future participants (the open group measure) over the next 75 years (except Black Lung which has a rolling 25-year projection period). The reconciliation identifies several components of the changes that are significant and provides reasons for the changes in Note 25—Social Insurance.
(In trillions of dollars) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (Social Security):11 | ||||||
| Revenue (contributions and dedicated taxes) from: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 62 and over) | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 45.3 | 44.6 | 42.2 | 40.4 | 37.5 | |
| Future participants | 44.6 | 44.3 | 43.0 | 41.8 | 39.3 | |
| All current and future participants | 92.4 | 91.3 | 87.4 | 84.2 | 78.6 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits for: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 62 and over) | (26.1) | (24.6) | (23.5) | (21.6) | (19.8) | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (75.7) | (74.0) | (71.2) | (68.5) | (64.9) | |
| Future participants | (18.5) | (18.1) | (17.9) | (17.4) | (16.6) | |
| All current and future participants | (120.3) | (116.7) | (112.6) | (107.5) | (101.3) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (27.9)1 | (25.4)2 | (25.2)3 | (23.3)4 | (22.7)5 | |
| Federal Hospital Insurance (Medicare Part A):1111 | ||||||
| Revenue (contributions and dedicated taxes) from: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 16.6 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 13.0 | |
| Future participants | 15.5 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 14.6 | 13.0 | |
| All current and future participants | 33.1 | 32.5 | 31.3 | 30.2 | 26.7 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits for: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | (8.0) | (7.3) | (7.2) | (7.0) | (6.2) | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (24.0) | (23.0) | (23.6) | (23.2) | (20.9) | |
| Future participants | (4.4) | (4.8) | (5.1) | (5.0) | (4.6) | |
| All current and future participants | (36.4) | (35.1) | (35.9) | (35.2) | (31.7) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future | (3.3)1 | (2.6)2 | (4.6)3 | (5.0)4 | (5.0)5 | |
| Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance (Medicare Part B): | ||||||
| Revenue (premiums) from: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 13.2 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 10.0 | |
| Future participants | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | |
| General Fund transfers | 49.3 | 42.4 | 40.9 | 39.5 | 35.5 | |
| All current and future participants | 68.5 | 58.7 | 56.6 | 56.6 | 50.0 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits for: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | (10.0) | (8.5) | (8.0) | (7.8) | (6.9) | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (46.8) | (39.9) | (38.5) | (38.6) | (34.1) | |
| Future participants | (11.7) | (10.3) | (10.1) | (10.2) | (9.0) | |
| All current and future participants | (68.5) | (58.7) | (56.6) | (56.6) | (50.0) | |
| Eliminations | (49.3) | (42.4) | (40.9) | (39.5) | (35.5) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future | ||||||
| revenue (after eliminations)6 | (49.3)1 | (42.4)2 | (40.9)3 | (39.5)4 | (35.5)5 | |
| The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. | ||||||
(In trillions of dollars) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance (Medicare Part D):11 | ||||||
| Revenue (contributions and dedicated taxes) from: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| Future participants | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | |
| General Fund transfers | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 | |
| All current and future participants | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 10.9 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits for: | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (age 65 and over) | (1.6) | (1.5) | (1.3) | (1.2) | (1.1) | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (6.9) | (7.1) | (6.9) | (7.4) | (6.9) | |
| Future participants | (2.2) | (2.4) | (2.4) | (3.1) | (2.9) | |
| All current and future participants | (10.7) | (11.0) | (10.6) | (11.7) | (10.9) | |
| Eliminations | (7.8) | (7.8) | (7.6) | (8.0) | (7.7) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue (after eliminations)6 | (7.8)1 | (7.8)2 | (7.6)3 | (8.0)4 | (7.7)5 | |
| Other | ||||||
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue7 | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.1) | |
| Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue8, 9, 10 | (88.4) | (78.3) | (78.4) | (75.9) | (71.0) | |
| The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. | ||||||
(In trillions of dollars) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Insurance Summary:11 | ||||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age: | ||||||
| Revenue (e.g., contributions and dedicated taxes) | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (45.7) | (41.9) | (40.0) | (37.6) | (34.0) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (39.1) | (35.9) | (34.4) | (32.2) | (29.3) | |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age: | ||||||
| Revenue (e.g., contributions and dedicated taxes) | 77.0 | 74.1 | 70.4 | 69.3 | 62.5 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (153.4) | (144.0) | (140.2) | (137.7) | (126.8) | |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (76.4) | (69.9) | (69.8) | (68.4) | (64.3) | |
| Closed group - Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (115.5) | (105.8) | (104.2) | (100.6) | (93.6) | |
| Future participants: | ||||||
| Revenue (e.g., contributions and dedicated taxes) | 64.0 | 63.2 | 61.4 | 60.5 | 55.8 | |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (36.9) | (35.7) | (35.6) | (35.8) | (33.2) | |
| Present value of future revenue in excess of future expenditure | 27.1 | 27.5 | 25.8 | 24.7 | 22.6 | |
| Open group - Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (88.4) | (78.3) | (78.4) | (75.9) | (71.0) | |
| The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. | ||||||
Footnotes
2 In relation to the amounts presented in the SOSI and SCSIA, because the combined Railroad Retirement and Black Lung programs account for less than one-quarter of 1.0 percent of the statement totals, they are not material from the government-wide perspective. (Back to Content)
Table Footnotes
1 The projection period for Social Security and Medicare is 1/1/2025 - 12/31/2099 and the valuation date is 1/1/2025. (Back to Content)
2 The projection period for Social Security and Medicare is 1/1/2024 - 12/31/2098 and the valuation date is 1/1/2024. (Back to Content)
3 The projection period for Social Security and Medicare is 1/1/2023 - 12/31/2097 and the valuation date is 1/1/2023. (Back to Content)
4 The projection period for Social Security and Medicare is 1/1/2022 - 12/31/2096 and the valuation date is 1/1/2022. (Back to Content)
5 The projection period for Social Security and Medicare is 1/1/2021 - 12/31/2095 and the valuation date is 1/1/2021. (Back to Content)
6 These amounts represent the PV of the future transfers from the General Fund to the SMI Trust Funds. These future intra-governmental transfers are included as income in both HHS’s and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services's (CMS) financial statements but, by accounting convention, are not income from the government-wide perspective of this report. (Back to Content)
7 Includes Railroad Retirement and Black Lung. (Back to Content)
8 These amounts do not include the PV of the financial interchange between the railroad retirement and social security systems, which is included as income in the Railroad Retirement Financial Report, but is not included from the government-wide perspective of this report (See discussion of RRB in the unaudited RSI section of this report). (Back to Content)
9 Does not include interest expense accruing on the outstanding debt of the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund (BLDTF). (Back to Content)
10 For information on the projection periods and valuation dates for the Railroad Retirement and Black Lung programs, refer to the financial statements of RRB and DOL, respectively. (Back to Content)
11 Current participants for the Social Security and Medicare programs are assumed to be the closed group of individuals who are at least 15 years of age at the start of the projection period, and are participating as either taxpayers, beneficiaries, or both. Amounts shown exclude the General Fund transfers reported by CMS for Medicare's Parts B and D. (Back to Content)