Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections
The SLTFP, including the corresponding Note and RSI, are intended to help readers of the government’s financial statements assess the federal government’s financial condition and how it has changed during the year and may change in the future. The statements and corresponding analysis are specifically designed to help readers assess whether future budgetary resources will be sufficient to sustain public services and to meet obligations as they come due, assuming that current policy for federal government services and taxation continues without change.
The SLTFP displays the PV of 75-year projections by major category of receipts and non-interest spending. The projections show the extent to which future receipts of the government exceed or fall short of the government’s non-interest spending and are presented both in terms of PV dollars and in terms of PV dollars as a percent of PV GDP. The projections reflect policies currently in place and are neither forecasts nor predictions. The projections are consistent with the projections for Social Security and Medicare presented in the SOSI and are based on the same economic and demographic assumptions that underlie the SOSI. The SLTFP reports the fiscal gap, which is a summary measure of the change in receipts or non-interest spending that is necessary to reach a target debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the projection period. In the SLTFP, “debt” refers to debt held by the public. Note 24—Long-Term Fiscal Projections explains the methods used to prepare the projections. Unaudited RSI further assesses the sustainability of current fiscal policy and provides results that are based on alternative assumptions to those used in the SLTFP.
As discussed further in Note 24, a sustainable policy is one where the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or declining over the long term. Because GDP measures the size of the nation’s economy in terms of the total value of all final goods and services that are produced in a year, the debt-to-GDP ratio is a useful indicator of the economy’s capacity to support federal government services.
| In trillions of dollars | Percent of GDP2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | Change | 2025 | 2024 | Change | |
| Receipts: | ||||||
| Social Security payroll taxes | 85.1 | 84.2 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | - |
| Medicare payroll taxes | 29.0 | 28.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| Individual income taxes | 200.0 | 223.6 | (23.6) | 9.8 | 11.2 | (1.4) |
| Corporation income taxes | 23.9 | 27.0 | (3.1) | 1.2 | 1.3 | (0.2) |
| Customs duties3 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 | 1.2 | - | 1.2 |
| Other receipts4 | 20.6 | 23.0 | (2.4) | 1.0 | 1.1 | (0.1) |
| Total receipts | 382.6 | 386.5 | (3.9) | 18.7 | 19.3 | (0.6) |
| Non-interest spending: | ||||||
| Social Security | 122.0 | 118.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 0.1 |
| Medicare Part A5 | 38.5 | 37.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | - |
| Medicare Parts B & D6 | 61.7 | 54.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Medicaid | 51.2 | 52.7 | (1.5) | 2.5 | 2.6 | (0.1) |
| Other mandatory | 63.9 | 66.6 | (2.7) | 3.1 | 3.3 | (0.2) |
| Defense discretionary | 60.3 | 60.5 | (0.2) | 3.0 | 3.0 | (0.1) |
| Non-defense discretionary | 64.4 | 68.8 | (4.3) | 3.2 | 3.4 | (0.3) |
| Total non-interest spending | 462.2 | 459.2 | 3.0 | 22.6 | 22.9 | (0.3) |
| Receipts less non-interest spending | (79.6) | (72.7) | (6.9) | (3.9) | (3.6) | (0.3) |
| Fiscal gap7 | (4.7) | (4.3) | (0.3) | |||
| Totals may not equal the sum of components due to rounding. The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. | ||||||
Footnotes
1 75-year present value projections for 2025 are as of 9/30/2025 for FYs 2026-2100; projections for 2024 are as of 9/30/2024 for FYs 2025-2099. (Back to Content)
2 The 75-year present value of nominal GDP, which drives the calculations above is $2,043.6 trillion starting in FY 2026 and was $2,002.6 trillion starting in FY 2025. (Back to Content)
3 FY 2025 is the first year where customs duties is an independent line item. The prior year’s SLTFP included customs duties as a part of the other receipts. The non-entry of data in customs duties for FY 2024 is because they are still accounted for in the other receipts line. The “change” columns do not account for FY 2024 customs duties – those are accounted for in the other receipts line. (Back to Content)
4 This item includes customs duties in FY 2024, but not FY 2025. For this line, the “change” columns are calculated as (FY 2025’s other receipts, excluding customs duties) minus (FY 2024’s other receipts, including customs duties). (Back to Content)
5 Represents portions of Medicare supported by payroll taxes. (Back to Content)
6 Represents portions of Medicare supported by general revenues. Consistent with the Budget, outlays for Parts B & D are presented net of premiums. (Back to Content)
7 To prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising over the next 75-years, a combination of non-interest spending reductions and receipt increases that amounts to 4.7 percent of GDP on average is needed (4.3 percent of GDP on average in 2024). See Note 24—Long-Term Fiscal Projections. (Back to Content)